Two Children 1
You’re talking to your colleague at work when it comes up in the conversation that he has 2 children.
“What genders are they?” you ask.
“Well, I have at least one daughter,” he replies.
What is the probability the family has two daughters?
Hint
You can assume that the probability of any child being a boy or girl to be equal and independent.
Hint
The answer is not 50%.
Solution
31
When you first find out that your colleague has 2 children, the possibilities made known to you are:
- Both children are boys
- The older child is a boy, and the younger child is a girl
- The older child is a girl, and the younger child is a boy
- Both children are girls
Each outcome comes at equal chance.
However, when he reveals that at least one of them is a girl, then you can eliminate the first possibility. That leaves 3 possibilities, each with equal chance. Thus, the chances of him having 2 daughters is 31.
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